An Analysis of Vancouver, BC
RESULTS & DISCUSSION
This page discusses the results of our hotspot, risk and accessibility analyses. Currently, health care officials have claimed that some individuals are at higher risk of becoming infected than others. Our study attempted to better understand the risk factors using geography. We have looked into the factors that could increase an individual's potential risk, areas that might be more vulnerable, and how individuals are affected by the virus throughout Metro Vancouver.
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HOTSPOT ANALYSES
Population Density
Metro Vancouver has a large population and highest density within British Columbia. This is an important factor to consider as we determine the effects of the coronavirus. Denser areas have higher risks of coming into contact with those who may have the virus. The population is fairly spread out as seen in the map; there is a mixture of high and low population density. However, the densest areas are within the more central areas. Although the outer parts of Metro Vancouver have high populations, the census tracts are also noticeably larger. Regardless, this map helps us visualize the number of people surrounding one another. Also, most of the census tracts that have low populations may not be residential areas. For example, the Sea Island (location of the Vancouver International Airport) has a low population density as there are not a lot of residential areas. The map helps us visualize the density of Metro Vancouver however, we will be analyzing specific demographics in the following hotspot analyses.
Ages 65 and Over
Older adults, particularly those with underlying medical conditions, are more vulnerable to developing more serious complications from the virus. It has been reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), that 8 out of 10 deaths are usually from individuals 65 or older. Each census tract on the map is assigned a colour that represents the percentage of seniors (65+) living in the area. Most areas appear to have a fairly high percentage of seniors. There are no particular patterns as seniors seem to be spread out somewhat evenly throughout Metro Vancouver. Areas that have a higher percentage of seniors are located in the outskirts of central Vancouver such as White Rock, North Vancouver and Delta
For more information:
CDC https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/older-adults.html
The hotspot analysis confirms that there is a higher percentage of seniors outside of central Vancouver (North Vancouver, Langley, Delta, and Richmond). There is a patch with significantly lower percentages of seniors in parts of Burnaby, Coquitlam, New West and Surrey. These hotspots also represent areas that are vulnerable to the virus as the virus has detrimental health effects on the elderly.
Apartments in Metro Vancouver
Apartments are considered to increase the risk of being infected by the virus. It assumes that there is more contact between individuals as apartments are residential buildings where many households live. Unlike a single-detached house, apartment facilities and other services, such as elevators and stairs, are commonly shared among those who live in the apartment. As seen in the map, there is a significantly lower amount of apartments outside of the urban core areas. On the other hand, many apartments can be found in the UBC area, downtown, a small part of Richmond, New West, and the eastern part of Burnaby. These areas may be at higher risk of becoming infected by the virus.
The hotspot analysis suggests that there is a much higher amount of apartments across the more urban or central parts of Metro Vancouver (North Vancouver, Vancouver, New West, Burnaby, and Richmond). Areas that have low amounts of apartments are found in the Langley area. If we compare this hotspot map to the hotspot of seniors, seniors living in Langley are at a lower risk than those who live in North Vancouver, Vancouver, Burnaby, New West, and a part of Richmond.
Health Care Workers
Those who are in health care profession are in the frontlines of helping those who have been infected with the virus. This also means that they have a significantly higher chance of becoming infected or becoming a carrier. The map visually represents the number of people who work in health care within each census tract. There is a high amount of health care workers all over Metro Vancouver. However, it is also important to note that each census tract has about 2,500 to 8,000 people. When the number of healthcare workers is compared to the population within each census tract, it seems fairly unlikely to come into contact with health care workers. Although this is true, geography is much more complex when we examine the likelihood of coming across one another - directly or indirectly. Therefore, this map shows that we need to keep a safe social distance to lower the chances of being infected.
The hotspots for health care workers appear to be in Vancouver, Burnaby, New West, and Richmond. The coldspots are found in Delta and the eastern portion of Langley. This may correspond to the density of residential care facilities and hospitals found in Metro Vancouver.
Public Transit Users
Public transit is a very common form of transportation in Vancouver. As a sustainably minded city, many people are willing to travel using public transportations such as busses, skytrains, and sea buses. As the term suggests, however, this type of transportation is open to the public. This would increase the chances of coming into contact with those who are infected or have been carrying the virus, directly or indirectly. From the map, we can see a much higher rate of public transit users in the urban parts of Metro Vancouver. A gradient can be seen as you move away from the more urban parts of Metro Vancouver. This can indicate a lower amount of public transit users in areas where public transit is inconvenient. Public transit cannot be avoided for some individuals so it is important to keep your hands from touching your face by wearing a face mask.
The analysis confirms that there are large coldspots in areas further away from centralized Vancouver such as Langley. Coldspots can also be found in Delta and some parts of North Vancouver. Those who live in the hotspots are at a higher risk of being infected. The virus not only puts their health at risk but it also disrupts their routines and means of transportation.
Grouping Analysis Results
A grouping analysis identifies census tracts with similar characteristics. The factors that we have used in our hotspot analyses were chosen for the clustering analysis. We chose to conduct a multivariate clustering analysis rather than a spatially constrained multivariate clustering analysis because it focused more on the variable characteristics than the importance of spatial aggregation.
Many of the groups do not have an obvious spatial pattern. However, the group with the nighest percentage of seniors as well as the populated regions seem to mainly surround the borders of Vancouver proper. Aside from a few CTs, the group with the highest public transit as well as the group with the highest number of apartments are mainly situated within the Vancouver boundary.
Seniors
Apartments
Population
Public Transit Users
Health Care Workers
average
average
high
average
average
average
high
high
high
high
low
average
average
high
high
high
low
low
low
low
Blue
Red
Green
Yellow
Hotspot Intersect
This map was generated by overlaying the highest and lowest scores of each hotspot map, seen above. The results indicate that the areas at risk of contracting COVID-19 are portions of North Vancouver, the downtown core and Kitsilano. However, East Vancouver had the greatest risk of individuals coming into contact and contracting Coronavirus. The East Vancouver region had a high percentage of public transit users, apartment dwellers, and health care workers.
The coldspots are found in the regions of Delta and Langley. The areas that are least at risk are more spread out than the hotspots, which seem to spread out in terms of intensity from the most risky to the least risky. Overall, the eastern portion of Metro Vancouver is suspected to have much lower rates of COVID-19 cases.
Risk and Accessibility Analyses of Attributes
In this portion of our analyses, we conducted a risk and accessibility analysis. We decided to analyze our spatial surroundings at a closer level. We cannot pinpoint the exact location of every individual (as we are all constantly moving) but instead, we identified features that can influence our health and safety. We chose to use residential care facilities, hospitals, and greenspaces.
Green Space
For more information:
Exercise recommendation: https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/be-active-during-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR2lK39hQyMZt2gZedNf10F34o4UCqYHAMLm5aLxenObLVPwzfx25dUQnxE
Hughes and Norton https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2759054/?fbclid=IwAR18kV74En3usCLFKDTI_T08aJL98jFUajRAH5aeFFjNATfLnXpCvk-rWIwPark information https://www.pc.gc.ca/en/voyage-travel/securite-safety/covid-19-info
Metro Vancouverites are known for their healthy and green lifestyles. Parks and other natural attractions are found in most of the neighbourhoods. In the midst of the pandemic, individuals are recommended to exercise (WHO). Studies have shown that physical activity enhances our body’s defence system such as the immune system and respiratory system (Nieman et al., 2019). The virus has been known to target the lungs, which is also the essential organ for the respiratory system. Studies have shown that vitamin D, generated by sunlight, plays an important role in the health of the respiratory system (Hughes and Norton, 2009). While some stay at home to exercise, others exercise outdoors. Our map demonstrates the accessibility of greenspace among the census tracts in Metro Vancouver. We have placed 1 km buffers surrounding each of the large greenspace (>30,000 sqm) to indicate a 10 minute walking distance from each greenspace. We then placed a 500m buffer around the small greenspace (<30,000 sqm) to indicate a 5 minute proximity. As a result of the buffers, it shows that greenspaces are accessible to most neighbourhoods.
Hospitals
As mentioned earlier, hospitals are the main facilities that are treating patients with the coronavirus. In the case of any emergencies, it is vital that every individual has the accessibility to hospitals. Research suggests that increased distance from the hospital means that there is a higher chance of mortality. We have created a 10km buffer surrounding all the known hospitals in Metro Vancouver to represent a radius of a 10 minute drive. The results indicate that most parts of Metro Vancouver are covered. Some areas even have overlapping buffers or several options for hospitals while some areas outside of central Vancouver have fewer hospitals.
Find missing hospitals: ridge meadows hospital, langley hospital, mission memorial hospital, abbotsford regional hospital
For more information:
Nicholl et al. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2464671/?fbclid=IwAR0FeSIBsBhMTcsMgyXpUXzTZYpqLCkAODR6q2E7Y9Q85-be0ILEjGv5sAg
Residential Care Facilities
Residential care facilities include long term care, community living, hospice, acquired brain injury, mental health, substance use and child and youth residential care. As seen on the map, there are residential care facilities all throughout Metro Vancouver. Individuals who require residential care are also more likely to be easy targets for the virus, whether they are seniors, children, or those with health issues. The map attempts to determine the risks around the facilities. We have set a 200m buffer around each facility, which is equivalent to one block in Vancouver. Patients within these facilities are at risk. In particular, some residential care facilities are close to hospitals, which take in infected individuals. Hospitals increase the risk of coming into contact with those who may have the virus. Therefore we have placed a buffer to indicate the proximity that patients or staff would travel.