An Analysis of Vancouver, BC
CONCLUSION
Overall, there seems to be a clear pattern of Vancouver proper being much more at risk of contracting COVID-19 than surrounding areas. Delta and Langley stand out as environments that have lower risks of contracting and spreading the virus. Luckily even the places most at risk are well within the 10 km buffer of hospitals, and less than 1 km away from some form of green space. Such accessibilities can allow people who do contract the virus to have increased immune and respiratory health through exercise, as well as a decreased chance of mortality due to the proximity of emergency hospital services.
ERRORS AND UNCERTAINTY
As with any analysis, there are certainly errors and uncertainties that cannot be avoided. Here are some errors and uncertainties to be mindful of:
Variables
Our analysis only selected a subset of variables that we deemed most important. However, we do not have all the variables that we may need to generate an extremely accurate model. For example, people with underlying conditions are most at risk of contracting this virus. This is data we do not have access to.
Year
The data we have selected uses the 2016 census data. Changes may have occurred within the past 4 years.
Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP)
Each census tract is generalized to a mean, median, or average value. However, assuming any of these values is significant for every person in the population is inaccurate. Many of the CTs, particularly on the North Shore, are partially covered in forest, which is uninhabited by humans. This analysis does not taking that error into account.
FUTURE STUDIES
For our future studies, we hope to apply updated data and more variables to our analyses. In the future, if there was data on the virus available at the CT level, we could compare our results to what actually happened. As more becomes known about COVID-19, such as the way it is transmitted and more variables that put individuals at risk, a more detailed model could be generated.